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Thread: US Elections 2020 - These little earthquakes. Here we go again.

  1. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan View Post
    I love Kamala Harris, but does anyone really think she stands a chance in this racist, nationalist climate? So far out of everyone who's thrown their hat in the ring, she's my favorite. I just don't feel confident about it.
    I actually think she'll win and it'll be poetic justice that after Trump ran on a platform of a racist birther conspiracy against President Obama and then trying to negate everything he's done, and then cheating in order to beat Hillary, that not only will the person to take him down be African American (and Indian) but also the first female president. It will kill him and his supporters and it will be sweet, sweet karma.

  2. #17
    Gone Andromeda grapefruit_is_winning's Avatar
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    @TheTruthSeeker - I love your positivity. That would be amazing

    I'm of two minds. First, I'm super cynical and pessimistic by nature and so I fundamentally think Trump will win, either in earnest or by cheating somehow. After all, our loser Legislature has done literally nothing to prevent foreign meddling in our elections. Literally. Nothing. (Ugh)

    But then I get to thinking about Danica Roem beating a 25-year Republican incumbent in the VIRGINA House of Delegates of all places, that asshat clown who specifically campaigned on Anti-gay/trans rhetoric, Bob Marshall. I mean, sometimes something *really* good does happen, even in American politics.

  3. #18
    Senior Member Jezebelle's Avatar
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    Just watching the debate about the MAGA hat wearing Catholic school kid be able to smugly face a native American Elder who also fought in Vietnam lets me know.... it can't be any wonderful progressive. We're gonna need a boring middle aged white dude. I live in a progressive and liberal bubble and am a proud SJW but nothings getting better - its all getting worse.
    chillin in kyoto grand with my man Skrill

  4. #19
    Administrator Ryan's Avatar
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    I have talked to two very high ranking people with Florida’s largest power company today for work, and my spidey sense told me I should look them up on Facebook. Both of them are sharing memes about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, defending the Catholic school kids, and one of them is parroting QAnon bullshit. These are very senior people in a massive company who are college educated and working in positions of power.

    Then I stopped to have coffee with my aunt and she and her friend were talking about how Democrats need to reopen the government and stop holding everyone hostage because they hate Trump. They can’t understand why Democrats love immigrants flooding into the country. My aunt’s friend said, “Why can’t they just shut up and let us build the wall? We’ll be safer and it’ll stop some of these drugs flooding in here.”

    For those of you who live in liberal areas, I tried to tell you in 2016 that rural America would love Trump. I’m telling you now that he’ll get easily re-elected. The racism, combined with the seething hatred for anything considered “liberal,” will drive small-minded people to the polls every time.

  5. #20
    megaphone to my chest MikeEP's Avatar
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    I have no doubt you’re right Ryan but I have to believe we can take the country back. This is the still same country that elected Obama twice and those people still aren’t the majority. It feels so hopeless sometimes but I have to believe we can prevail, however narrowly it may be.

  6. #21
    worth a million in prizes .chris's Avatar
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    I do think there is a chance that Trump gets re-elected but I don't think it is anywhere near a done deal. I know Trump's base doesn't give a shit, but similar to what happened in Clinton's campaign with WikiLeaks you are going to be getting a constant drip of scandalous and corrupt news stories everyday of the campaign between Mueller and the House investigations. I do think at some point Americans are just going say "ENOUGH" we want politics to be boring again.

    Anyway, there are too many factors at play to even waste time thinking about it. We have no idea how the Mueller investigation, impeachment trials, or how the Democratic primary is going to play out.

  7. #22
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by .chris View Post

    Anyway, there are too many factors at play to even waste time thinking about it. We have no idea how the Mueller investigation, impeachment trials, or how the Democratic primary is going to play out.
    I'm pulling for Big Macs and a sedentary lifestyle.

  8. #23
    Gone Andromeda grapefruit_is_winning's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan View Post
    For those of you who live in liberal areas, I tried to tell you in 2016 that rural America would love Trump. I’m telling you now that he’ll get easily re-elected. The racism, combined with the seething hatred for anything considered “liberal,” will drive small-minded people to the polls every time.
    Hence why the "southern strategy" (aka, conservative appeals to racists) is alive and well in the Republican party. It's a winning strategy, which is just about the most depressing thing I can think of. And given the electoral advantage afforded to rural people in the US, it becomes easy to see why meaningful social progress is so fucking hard to come by.

    I live in Seattle (way blue, obvs) but I grew up in southern Idaho Mormon farm country - one of the reddest places there is. And building on your perspective here Ryan, I am always super annoyed by the noise in the media and among talking heads about how Trump is fundamentally different than Republicans. He may be on some issues of policy, but not even remotely unique with respect to his backwards, racist, sexist, anti-immigrant nastiness... Where I grew up, those kinds of views, coupled with a complete distrust and distaste for intellectualism, the scientific method, and any real higher level thinking... those attitudes and Republican affiliation went hand in hand. You never saw one without the other.

  9. #24
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    I have to say I agree with this for the most part. The most glaring error to me is a not having a "Biden - NO NO NO" line.



    I don't want anyone to pull ahead right now. I don't want a front-runner or presumptive nominee for at least 14 months. I want those who had their chance and lost (Bernie, John Kerry) to fuck right off. Even Hillary, even though it's really unfair what happened to her. Anyone who even hints at sabotaging the nominee once there is a one or hints at a third party run, who can't commit fully to supporting the nominee out of pique or future plans has no place here. We need a healthy, fair primary/caucus process and then we need to follow the GOP and unify entirely. You're with us or against us. No more of our (normally good) purity. We need Trump gone and the Senate flipped. Personal glory needs to take a backseat. If someone can't understand that, then they are not a proper candidate for the Dems.

  10. #25
    generally largely right Dan's Avatar
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    I don't think Trump is going to win; I'm not sure he'll finish his current term either. Trump won because he managed to temporarily dupe working class Midwesterners with his populist bullshit; Hillary wrongly assumed those people to be smarter and therefore didn't court them aggressively. However, those people have figured Trump out at this point, and judging by the midterm results, they've jumped ship. Sure, he'll probably win Florida and a bunch of other places, but not Pennsylvania or Wisconsin or Michigan, and without those three, I just don't see a path for him. Nevada is quite blue at this point and Arizona is purple to periwinkle, and I wouldn't be shocked if NC flipped blue either.

  11. #26
    Senior Member Puddles's Avatar
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    Everything depends on the race. Trump probably would not have won in 2016 if it wasn't for James Comey's October 28th letter about the FBI investigating Hillary's email server. Here's Nate Silver's analysis of the polling data (link: The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton the Election:

    At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.
    I find that pretty remarkable. And tragic.

  12. #27
    generally largely right Dan's Avatar
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    Well, yeah. But let's not forget that Trump did run as an economic populist on a lot of issues too, and then he either governed like a regular Republican on those issues or simply failed (or outright refused) to deliver. Those (working-class) people who voted for him based on his presumed economic populism now know that was a load of crap. At this point, if democrats don't nominate someone too far left who would scare the shit out of moderates, or a Blue Dog (not that there are many of those left), they should eb fine.

  13. #28
    worth a million in prizes .chris's Avatar
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    Howard Schultz is thinking of throwing his hat into the ring. And I say FUCK NO. I cannot think of anyone who wants this man to run...(besides, maybe Trump because he will split the vote)

  14. #29
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by .chris View Post
    Howard Schultz is thinking of throwing his hat into the ring. And I say FUCK NO. I cannot think of anyone who wants this man to run...(besides, maybe Trump because he will split the vote)
    One of the funniest things I've been reading is that the only people who do want him to run are the consultants that are going to bleed him dry.

    But yeah he needs to fuck off.

    Jon Lovett:

    The effort to remove Donald Trump from office—by impeachment, resignation, or electoral defeat—is among the most important political fights in American history. The stakes are total. If he is on the ballot in 2020 he will be defeated by Democratic voters, with the help of independents, first-time voters, and some Republicans—or he will be re-elected. A huge percentage of those voters are about to engage in a great contest, state by state, to choose the person we want to face off against Trump. Millions of your fellow citizens will take it seriously, they will knock on doors and persuade their friends, they will argue and think and worry about who they should support. For you to evade that process, for you to introduce so profound an uncertainty into this election, for you to leapfrog the primaries, avoid any debate, insert yourself into that decision, simply because you have the money to do it and the foolishness to believe the consultants you’ve paid to get to yes, is reprehensible.

    You want to help your country? Help us defeat the propaganda machine that enables Trump and the worst elements of the Republican Party. Help us push back against corporate interests arrayed against action on climate change. Fund local journalism. Fund scholarships. Fund voter registration and protection. And, if you believe in the case you’d make as an independent candidate, join the Democratic primary and make that case before the voters you’d need to win. Put some skin in the game. Put some time on the trail. Because unlike money, time and skin are as limited for you as they are for the rest of us.

    I believe you love this country. I believe you believe in a noble conception of your motivations. So my hope is that the criticisms reach you, that you talk to smart people you do not pay, that you do not show the same kind of hubris and selfishness and ego that led Trump to believe he alone could fix it. In other words, I hope you show some patriotism and get your head out of your ass.

  15. #30
    strike every chord that you feel Owen's Avatar
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    The same people who refused to vote for Hillary have already decided that Harris is a non-starter based on her previous line of work. It's gonna be an ugly election.

    I understand. There are a few people running that I wish I could REFUSE to vote for. But I'm also a big boy who understands how things actually work so I'm gonna suck it up and vote for whoever gets the democratic nomination.

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